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US-China Trade Tensions Open Door for African Farmers to Capture New Export Markets

As a fresh wave of tariffs reignites tensions between the United States and China, American farmers are increasingly worried about losing their biggest export market — a development that could reshape global agricultural trade. But for Sub-Saharan Africa, this growing rift presents a timely opportunity to step in as a competitive supplier of key commodities such as soya beans, beef, chicken, and sorghum.

According to the Associated Press, U.S. farmers were already struggling to cope with record-high input costs and tight margins. “There’s hardly any room for error in the current farm economy,” said Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association. With China historically purchasing half of the U.S.’s soya bean and sorghum exports, any disruption in that relationship spells trouble for American agriculture.

In 2024 alone, China imported over US$24 billion worth of U.S. agricultural goods, but new tariffs imposed by the U.S. government have sent crop prices tumbling. Farmers now fear that China will accelerate its search for alternative suppliers — especially from regions like South America and potentially Africa.

“The new tariffs could put many U.S. farmers out of business,” said Tim Dufault, a grain producer in Minnesota. “If China looks elsewhere, we could permanently lose market share.”

A Strategic Opening for Sub-Saharan Africa

Agricultural leaders in Africa are watching these developments closely. Many African countries already produce soya beans, poultry, beef, and sorghum — all commodities that China needs in large volumes. With Beijing actively seeking to diversify its food imports due to recent trade frictions with both the U.S. and Australia, Africa has a chance to position itself as a reliable long-term partner.

“This is the moment for African agriculture to scale up its game — especially in terms of export quality, food safety standards, and trade diplomacy,” says Dr. Mpho Mokoena, an agricultural economist based in Johannesburg.

Countries like Nigeria, Zambia, Ethiopia, and South Africa already have commercial soya and beef sectors and could become viable alternative suppliers, especially if infrastructure and regulatory systems are strengthened.

Challenges and Opportunities

The shift won’t be automatic. African producers face challenges ranging from inconsistent export logistics and limited access to global markets, to sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards that often act as non-tariff barriers.

However, governments and private sector actors are taking notice. Regional initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and China-Africa agricultural cooperation frameworks could provide the necessary momentum.

“The market exists — China is buying. The real question is whether African agribusinesses can meet the scale and standards demanded by Asian markets,” notes Fatima Diallo, a trade advisor for West African exporters.

Lessons from the U.S. Experience

The U.S. government had to spend over $68 billion in farm aid between 2019 and 2020 to shield its farmers from previous trade wars and the pandemic’s impact. But African countries have far less fiscal room for such bailouts. This reinforces the need to focus on trade-readiness, export competitiveness, and reducing over-reliance on single markets.

“We don’t want to depend on handouts — we want to sell the crops we grow,” said Andy Hineman of the Kansas Grain Sorghum Producers Association, echoing a sentiment that resonates just as deeply across African farming communities.

What Next?

To seize the opportunity, Sub-Saharan African agriculture must move swiftly:

  • Enhance product quality and meet global food safety standards
  • Invest in logistics and cold chain infrastructure
  • Negotiate phytosanitary agreements with Chinese authorities
  • Facilitate public-private partnerships to improve export capabilities
  • Support smallholder inclusion in export supply chains

As geopolitical tensions redraw the global agricultural map, Africa could transform from a passive observer into an active trade participant — if it acts with urgency and purpose.

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