South Africa’s economic growth is stagnating, but agriculture could be the sector to pull it back from the brink — if the right investments and policies are put in place. This is the key message from the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy’s (BFAP) Baseline 2025, released on 13 August.
Investment Drought Threatens Recovery
“Private investment is supposed to be the factor that kickstarts the economy, but it’s not happening,” said Shannon Bold, senior economist at the Bureau for Economic Research. Private fixed investment remains 15% below pre-COVID levels, with national GDP growth projected at just 0.8% for 2025 and 1.3% for 2026.
Agriculture Outperforming the Rest
According to BFAP director Tracy Davids, agriculture has significantly outpaced the broader economy over the past decade, thanks to technology adoption, precision farming, and improved machinery. “But our competitors are using the best on the market. We must keep up — and policy frameworks must allow faster adoption,” she said.
Growth Needs ‘Skin in the Game’
BFAP managing director Prof Ferdi Meyer noted that farming incomes have more than doubled in the democratic era. Growth, he said, comes from expansion, intensification, diversification into higher-value crops, and cost efficiency. “All require investment. If you give agriculture half a chance, it will grow.”
Meyer pointed out that South Africa has irrigation water and state-owned farmland capable of much higher production, but much of it lies idle. Unlocking this potential means providing secure land tenure, financing, and farmer support.
A Call to Action
Speakers agreed that targeted investment, rapid technology uptake, and enabling policies could shift agriculture’s growth trajectory — and with it, South Africa’s economy. “We know what works,” Davids concluded. “Now we need to work together to implement it.”
